2010 Fall Flight Forecast

Duck numbers were up last year according to the United States Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) annual breeding pair estimates. For most people however, the 2009-2010 duck season was a season to forget and not a season to remember. Almost everyone I talked to had one of the worst duck seasons they have had in recent memory. This was not due to a lack of ducks but to an abundance of water. From Texas to Virginia the entire Southeast experienced record rainfall and record water levels. This meant that most of the ducks spread out across the Southeast and used wintering grounds that had not been available to them for many years. This years USFWS breeding pair counts show similar numbers to last year and hopefully this will equate into some good duck hunting here in South Carolina.

Spring May pond counts were 6.7 million which was similar to last years estimate of 6.4 million and 34% above the long-term average (LTA) of 5.0 million. The long-term average is defined as the average number of ponds from 1955, when the survey started, to 2009. Most of the traditional survey area (Alaska, Western Canada, Central Canada and the Dakotas) experienced average to good water levels prior to the May pond count. Since the May survey much of the Dakotas, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have experienced heavy to record rainfall which has greatly improved wetland conditions. The high water flooded out many duck nests. However, excellent water levels in June and July will increase duck re-nesting intensity and brood survival which will result in an increased fall flight of ducks. Since many of the best breeding grounds typically dry up in the summer and rely on winter snowfall and spring rains to fill up it will also give these nesting grounds a head start on next year if water levels can remain stable.

Overall Numbers

Overall duck numbers this year, 40.9 million, were similar to last year, 42.0 million, and are 21% above the LTA. These numbers do not include long-tailed ducks, mergansers, eiders, scoters and wood ducks because their breeding grounds are not in the traditional survey area. The total duck population for the eastern survey area was 2.6 million down from 2.8 million last year. This is - 3% from the LTA of 2.7 million.

Mallards

Mallard populations are virtually unchanged from last year with 8.4 million down from 8.5 million last year. This is still 12% above the LTA of 7.5 million. Alaska, Yukon, Northern Alberta, Northern British Columbia and the western Dakotas experienced large increases while Manitoba and southern Alberta experienced large decreases.

Gadwall

Gadwall numbers were also unchanged from last year with both years having numbers at 3.0 million but this is still 67% above the LTA of 1.8 million. The eastern Dakotas, which is their largest breeding grounds, experienced an 8% increase while southern Saskatchewan showed a 13% decrease.

Blue-winged Teal

Blue-wings experienced the largest decline of any duck this year. They were estimated at 6.3 million which is 14% down from last year’s estimate of 7.4 million. They are still however 36% above the LTA. Every breeding area except for northern Alberta and northern British Columbia experienced sharp declines in numbers.

Green-winged Teal

3.48 million Green-winged teal were estimated this year which is up just slightly from last year’s estimate of 3.44. This means that they have set a new population record and are still 78% above the LTA of 1.95 million. The eastern Dakotas experienced a 193% increase this year while northern Saskatchewan and northern Manitoba experienced a 74% decrease.

American Wigeon

Estimates on wigeon numbers this year are 2.43 million which is nearly unchanged from last years estimate of 2.47 million. Wigeon continue to be one of only 3 species that are below their LTA (2.61 million). Alaska and the eastern Dakotas showed the biggest gains while Saskatchewan had the largest loss.

Northern Pintail

Pintail numbers continue to rise and are on their way to reaching their LTA of 4.04 million. This year the estimate was 3.51 million up 9% from last year. This estimate is the highest since 1997 and the second highest since 1983. With a few more years like this we may be able to increase the pintail limit. There should not be any hunting season restrictions like there was a few years ago.

Northern Shoveler

Although their numbers are down slightly from last year northern shoveler numbers continue to be near record levels. At 4.06 million they are down 7% from last year’s estimate of 4.38 million. This is still 76% above the LTA and places like the eastern Dakotas are still 267% above their LTA.

Redhead

Another record has been set for Redheads. The estimate of 1.06 million this year is up 2% from last year’s estimate of 1.04 million. This is 63% above the LTA of 0.65 million birds. The major breeding grounds of the eastern Dakotas showed a 9% decrease while other important areas such as Southern Manitoba and Saskatchewan had increases of 56% and 11%.

Canvasback

Canvasback numbers slipped a little bit this year with a 12% decrease in numbers. The estimate of 0.59 million is down from 0.66 last year but is still 3% above the LTA of 0.57 million. I don’t think that we will see any season closures this year but if their numbers keep slipping we might see them in the future. This year is indicative of their rollercoaster numbers over the past 15 years.

Scaup (Greater and Lesser)

With 5 years in a row of increasing population estimates scaup continue to show signs of improvement. The 4.24 million bird estimate for this year is the highest since 1999 and 2% above last year’s estimate of 4.17 million. This is still 16% below their LTA of 5.07 million. If numbers continue to increase we might see an increase in the bag limit in the future.

Eastern Survey Area

The eastern survey area is comprised of Ontario, Newfoundland, Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Quebec, New York and Maine. This area is counted separately from the traditional survey area and this year 2.61 million ducks were counted in these regions. This is down 8% from last year’s estimate of 2.82 million but similar to the LTA of 2.70 million. All species except for Ring-necked ducks showed declines. Wigeon were down 39%, scoters 26%, mallards 17% and mergansers 15%.

As long as conditions remain stable we should have a good duck season. South Carolina hunters should pray for dryer conditions across the Southeast and average winter temperatures. Last year’s cold weather combined with ample water pushed many of our primary ducks (ring-necked ducks, wood ducks, green and blue-winged teal) further south. Drier conditions in central Florida and Georgia will keep many of these ducks here while warmer weather will keep them from going further south. The bottom line is waterfowl hunters should have a good season across the entire United States.

2010 Fall Flight Forecast

By: Lead Waterfowl Biologist - Stuart Cochran

Keep An Eye Out For The 2011 Fall Flight Forecast - Coming Soon!